The
Economy is Fit and Healthy - R Seshasayee, Managing Director,
Ashok Leyland
Once again, and as expected, the FM has given us a budget
with few surprises. Predictability may not be exciting but
it certainly makes good economic sense, for, it allows all
participating players to plan long term. The economy has
performed at sustained high levels and, by not doing anything
to alter the course or upset the pace, he has signaled that
there will be a stable regime.
It is a responsible budget where the agenda of social justice
has been allowed to ride on the already announced and ongoing
eight flagship programmes with momentum expected from the
handsome enhancements in their plan outlays.
An appreciable feature of the Budget is the new emphasis
on private - public partnership as an effective tool for
bridging the viability gap in investment intensive and broad-based
programmes.
While, we are quick to give credit to the FM for what he
has proposed, credit is due for some of the temptations
that he has resisted. By introducing no new taxes, he has
signaled a stable tax regime based on moderate tax rates,
widening of the base and better compliance. The economy
has vindicated this approach by crossing the milestone 10%
tax to GDP ratio. This is an event to be celebrated as it
is truly indicative of an economy that has matured.
We have also crossed an important threshold in fiscal discipline.
A 3.8% fiscal deficit is symptomatic of a stable and growing
economy, one that is growing without being leveraged unduly.
It promises a double digit GDP growth without the dangers
of a bubble burst.
The reduction in peak custom duty rates signals the eventual
destination of single digit peak rates. It could be argued
that this unilateral reduction surrenders our negotiating
capability in the WTO discussions but fixing it at the half
way mark, the FM is acknowledging the maturity of Indian
industry and, at the same time, retaining enough buffer
for negotiation. The fine-tuning done this time has removed
the anomalies arising out of FTAs and conform to the sound
principle of inverted duty structure based on degree of
local value addition.
'Should the market decide its preferences or should the
Government mould it?' This question could be asked in the
context of the excise duty reduction only for a particular
segment of a car. I take this as a signal of eventual reduction
in excise duties across the board.
Like a good physician, the FM must deliver first aid as
well as long-term health. In this budget in his prescriptions
for the rural economy, along with interest relief for crop
loans there are significant prescriptions in irrigation,
R&D and education, to build durable capacities that will
help integrate the rural sector with the rest of India.
Rural road connectivity and access to information and services
through the E-governance network are important steps in
this eventual integration.
Two concern areas identified in the Economic Survey are
labour reforms and the ballooning petroleum subsidies now
residing in the balance sheets of the public sector petroleum
marketing companies. Surely, it has to spill over and the
industry and the economy have to find a way to absorb it.
Keeping these twin issues outside budget making and pushing
it to the political domain is a way to create consensus.
A disappointment is the continuation of a few irritating
and non-productive tax instruments such as FBT and Bank
Withdrawal Tax. |