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Stimulus at Work?

It appears that two stimulus packages that were announced by the Centre in December and January have started working to revive sales in the automobile sector. Sales figures for March reported by companies showed that while year-on-year sales continued to slip, on a monthly basis, there were improvements. Passenger car and two-wheeler sales are beginning to show a semblance of stability, thanks to the improved liquidity position with nationalized banks becoming very aggressive in lending, which has opened up finance opportunities in countryside.

Somewhat good showing of passenger cars and two-wheelers in the last quarter of FY09 can also be attributed to new launches that have sustained the interest of customers. The growth is more pronounced in case of players who have come up with new models in the last few months.

Stability in sales has also something to do with the people in rural areas, who seem to have money, manly because of a good agriculture year and higher support prices and the fact that this segment is fairly insulated from global meltdown and ups & downs in stock markets. Even the stock price movements as witnessed in the recent past are holding up indicating a quicker recovery for India, if collective market sentiment is anything to go by.

Market leader in passenger vehicle segment, Maruti Suzuki clocked domestic sales of 73,855 units in Mar'09 vis-à-vis 64,421 units in the corresponding month last year, witnessing a growth of 14.6%. The company's exports at 11,814 units during the month were up by 101 % and the cumulative sales at 85,669 units by 21.9% y-o-y.

Mahindra & Mahindra was another major player to record positive growth with sales tally of 14,340 utility vehicles in domestic market during the month of Mar'09, which translates into a healthy growth of 31 % y-o-y. Recently launched Xylo has got an overwhelming response. This, coupled with highest-ever sales of Bolero, Scorpio and pick-ups, helped the company register its highest ever sales in March. However, the company's export numbers reading 107 utility vehicles during the month fell sharply by 81.7% from 585 utility vehicles exported a year ago.

Audi, the German luxury car manufacturer, continued to register robust growth in its sales in India for the third consecutive month. Audi India clocked a growth of 56 per cent with the sales of 162 cars in Mar'09 when compared to 104 cars sold during Mar'08. Another luxury car manufacturer - BMW recorded a growth of about 20% clocking domestic sales of 440 units in Mar'09 as against sales figure of 367 units in March last year.

Fiat India capped the FY09 with a robust domestic sales tally of 1,781 units in Mar'09 witnessing a growth of whopping 295.8% over 478 units sold a year back. FY09 saw the company's domestic sales aggregating 8,087 units grow by healthy 135.3%, which can be considered satisfactory inasmuch as Fiat India had been losing ground in Indian domestic market for the last 3-4 years.

Barring few exceptions, sales continued to be in low gear for all major players on a y-o-y basis. Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) posted a 15.8% decline in domestic sales at 24,752 units during Mar'09, as compared to 29,401 units in Mar'08. However, the company's exports adding up to 21,406 units in Mar'09 grew by 21.6% from export figure of 17,600 units in Mar'08. HMIL registered a 1.8% decline in cumulative sales totalling 46,160 units during the month.

 
The segment-wise cumulative sales of HMIL during the month of Mar'09 were as follows: A2 Segment (Santro, i10, Getz & i20) - 41,802 units; A3 Segment (Accent & Verna) - 4,285 units, A5 Segment (Sonata Transform) -70 units; and SUV Segment (Tucson) - 3 units.

HSCI clocking sales of 7,368 units during the month witnessed a 17.2% drop compared to 8,895 units it sold in March last year.

General Motors India's domestic sales tally of 4,973 units in Mar'09 also fell by 27.3% y-o-y.

Tata Motors too was in the negative terrain during the month of Mar'09 comparing its sales performance year-on-year but the sales numbers looked good compared to Feb'09 figures.

Tata Motors' sales of passenger vehicles in Mar'09 in the domestic market at 23,680 units were the highest this fiscal, 24% up over Feb'09, but 4% lower than 24,737 vehicles sold in March last year. The Mar'09 sales of the Indica and Indigo range put together at 18,642 units were the highest this fiscal, surpassing Feb'09 sales of 15,524 units. The Indica range sales adding up to 13,678 units during the month were 5% higher than Mar'08 and the highest this fiscal. The Indigo range sales of 4,555 units were 8% higher than Feb'09, but 11 % lower than Mar'08. Sales of utility vehicles/SUVs standing at 5,038 units were the highest this fiscal, registering a 43% increase over Feb'09, but a 23% decline compared to March 2008.

The company's sales of commercial vehicles in Mar'09 in the domestic market added up to 29,006 units, 24% higher than that in Feb'09 but 19% lower than 35,993 vehicles sold in Mar'08. M&HCV sales at 12,333 units reflected a 40% growth over Feb'09, but 40% lower than Mar'08. LCV sales at 16,673 units were 9% higher than Mar'08.

The company's exports at 1,799 vehicles in Mar'09, were up 36% over Feb'09, but declined by 69% compared to 5,765 vehicles in Mar'08. The cumulative exports for the fiscal at 33,410 units declined by 38% from 54,272 units last year.

Two-wheelers having recovered from the slowdown blues, stayed on growth trajectory and once again posted a positive growth in Mar'09, riding on the continuing stupendous performance of Hero Honda.

Hero Honda Motors Ltd (HHML), the world's largest two-wheeler manufacturer for eight consecutive years, beating heavy odds in the market including adverse economic conditions, credit crunch and high interest rates, capped off its bullish performance all through the year with a double digit growth (10 per cent), with sales of 353,342 units in the month of Mar09 as compared to 320,594 units in Mar'08. With this, the company's total sales for the financial year 2009 zoomed to 3,722,000 two-wheelers, as compared to 3,337,142 units for the previous financial year (2007-08) - a robust growth of 12 per cent y-o-y.

India Yamaha Motor also reported a jump of 45.3% in sales this March at 14,558 units, as against 10,022 units sold in the same month last year.

Buoyed by a robust 44% growth in its scooter sales and a significant 25% increase in exports, TVS Motor Company posted a 4% growth in its total two wheeler sales (including exports). The cumulative two-wheeler sales of the company during the month of Mar'09 stood at 121,988 units against 117,045 units in Mar'08. Cumulative growth in sales for the financial year Apr'08 to Mar'09 worked out to 3%.

The recently launched TVS Scooty Streak has been extremely well received in the market and contributed handsomely to sales. Scooter sales increased 44% to 22,975 units in Mar'09 as against 15,942 units recorded in Mar'08. TVS motorcycle sales (including exports) at 55,754 units were down 8.5% in comparison to 60,908 units recorded in the same month last year.

Bajaj Auto also came up with a somewhat better showing but continued to be on a sticky wicket. Two-wheeler sales of Bajaj Auto at 93,377 units in domestic market during Mar'09 were down 18.2% and cumulative sales for the month including exports aggregating 132,210 two-wheelers slipped by 14.6% y-o-y.

As the sales data suggest, the good news is restricted to passenger vehicles and two-wheelers. Commercial vehicles, especially trucks that have been severely hit by the slowdown may not see an early recovery, going by the industrial production data for the last six months or so, the latest numbers indicating a 1.2% fall in industrial production during the month of Feb'09. Nevertheless, the revision in the growth number for Jan'09 from negative to marginally positive growth of 0.4% is encouraging. Together with the earlier revision for Oct'08, this means Indian industry is not in an utterly bad shape. What should be soothing to the ears is that there has been a nearly 6% growth in consumer durables during the month of February, enthusiastic response to Nano launch, revival of housing demand and the rise in steel & cement prices, giving rise to the optimism.
 
        
        
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